Copenhagen, J.R Tzolkin and Chopping Wood

Copenhagen and Chopping Wood
These photos are of Em's gypsy caravan. She is the woman with the pony showcased in the earlier video post of the raft being transported to Findhorn Bay. The Wind and the Willows illustration of a gypsy caravan was the only poster on her wall growing up, no wonder she finds herself in this life now.

Dreams of skyscrapers last night. Two days ago, with snow hammering the east coast of the US, grounding the planes that Emilia was intending to fly to Europe in, I sat at the edge of Findhorn Bay, Moray, Scotland, looking very similar to Back Bay in Portland Maine, waiting for the spring high New Moon tide to lift the funny raft underneath me. Taking responsibility for this raft, this prototype new age eco-technology innovation fated to transform urban sewage canals in developing countries, was no small responsibility, my ego told me. This estuary habitat raft prototype sat in the frigid Scottish tide while its designer, Galen Fulford and one of my hosts here in Scotland, was in Hong Kong, My job while he was stewing in tropical lushness, was to drag it out onto a new anchorage, into deeper water between ice floes, knowing that my feet had only a few short minutes of immersion before risking capillary damage in the cold. The snow was flying here as well, blowing sideways in the wind. I couldn’t know exactly when the tide would lift the raft, having turned off my precious iPhone service, {tide app worked good, too}, too heavy fro me to budge without flotation, and so I sat and waited for the water, watching it inch its way inexorably in, pushing a stripe of dead leaves higher and higher up the eel grass and mud. Out of the snow blur, across the gray water, a small white shape appeared. Without my glasses, I thought it might be a mooring ball that I had missed earlier, and tied it in my vision to the blurred gray trees on the horizon. My bare ankles were accumulating snow and my dry wetsuit was getting cold. The white shape was moving, was getting larger, and appeared to be approaching. It was a swan,I finally realized, in no particular hurry, pedaling its way against the wind to the lee shore, likely curious at my yellow rain slicker sitting motionless in the tide over my 1960’s blue farmer john wetsuit. I watched as it came closer and continued northwest to the lee shore to find shelter from the wind, or perhaps just enjoying the novelty of snow here. I have never seen a wild swan, and the vision fueled my very chilly dip wading of the anchor into deeper water. The burn of salty ice water is a special burn. Ahhhhhhhhhh.

Spent this fine Sunday morning chopping wood for the household here, white pine that has simmered in Scottish fog and winter for 3 years. Punky wood, will need to dry before it burns. I like the feeling of being spring loaded with an axe, focusing all my energy on the thin sharp blade and some point on the log, like an archer focuses on the connection between tip and target. I like the satisfaction of the wood exploding apart with a crisp cracking thunk noise, and imagine how many times this has happened in the last, say four hundred thousand years, human in snow cutting wood with cold fingers and a hot neck.

So a recap of this historic weekend. After a nice Sunday brunch with new friends here at Findhorn, I attended a presentation by Jonathan Dawson, former president of the Global Ecovillage Network Europe, who has just returned from a week in Copenhagen for the Climate Summit.
I thought I would share some of his observations, all paraphrased to give my impression of his story and some of his observations. Jonathan began with the following quote, “Apologies to all of you for whom English is not your native tongue, for you might not understand the saying ‘They couldn’t organize a piss-off in a brewery’.” His report of the Copenhagen Summit was clearly not going to be a glowing one, and this from an visionary and optimist. I make no claims to journalistic accuracy, just wanted to capture the gist of his messages. I will set the stage with a bit of a history review that doesn’t give a damn whether the climate is changing or not. What it does note is that fossil fuel and population growth have been a married couple, and a divorce is imminent in the near future…

Once upon a time, in 1750, at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, fossil fuels (primarily coal) emerged in force. The world population was half a billion people. We should remember that our modern democracy was born around this time, perhaps a coincidence, but seems interesting that a vast ocean of seemingly cheap fossil fuel energy was exploited and made way for a blossoming of democratic philosophy across Europe, the USA, and New Zealand. Thus we note that prior to 1750, prior to the emergence of fossil fuels as primary energy source, the Earth had never before sustained more than 500 million humans. Now, that’s not to say that the Earth had never before supported that much biomass, (living stuff) because in the Cambrian explosion, more than 542 million years ago, there was just more life abounding; 100 major animal groups with fundamentally different body plans, and only about 30 survived to this day. Alright, enough paleontological digression, geek.

Today, somewhere near the zenith of Peak Oil, (if you believe such radical notions) the world is very stirred up about global desertification, onset of ice ages, sea level rise, etc. A few weeks ago in Copenhagen, 193 nations showed up to talk thermal temperance, one of the few moments in history with representatives of every country at the table. That said, there was major inequity in the delegations, with the US presence at hundreds of representatives and many African nations with as few as 10 delegates representing an aggregate of countries.

The Bella center only has capacity for 15,000 due to fire code, and it was reported that over 35,000 showed up to be involved somehow. The youth movment was in force, loudly supporting Bill McKibbens movement 350.org, purportedly the largest human movement in recorded history, with 16 million motivated advocates worldwide. It should be noted that setting a CO2 limit of 350ppm is ambitious as we are currently at 370ppm. With a 30 year gap between CO2 emitted and atmospheric impact, could get tricky to get on down.

If you listen to Mr. Ban Ki-moon , the UN Chief, you would come away from the summit believing that:

1) all countries have agreed to long term goals toward 2° [celsius] limit **

{** 2° limit: Science says this infers the following:
i. ocean too acidic for reef survival
ii. West Antarctic Ice sheet collapses
iii. 30% extinction of all life on the planet
iv. massive desertification in equatorial zones}

2) all countries have agreed to limit emissions
3) conservation of forests
4) comprehensive support to the most vulnerable countries to cope with climate change. {Let us here remember that on 8 July 2005 in Gleneagles, the G8 pledged to increase overseas development assistance by US$ 50 billion (EUR 41.4 billion) a year by 2010, compared to 2004. Half of this amount, US$ 25 billion (EUR 20.7 billion) will go to Africa, more than doubling aid to the continent compared to 2004. UNESCO reports in 2009 state that less than one-fifth of these funds have been given and that roughly 23 billion will never be given}

Mr. Ki-moon reminds us that the deal is backed by money and the means to deliver it. $100bn/yr by 2020. They established transparency and an equitable global structure to address the needs of developing countries. They have built the foundations for global agreement. countries at the periphery of Kyoto protocol are now at the heart of global action (US front and center)
3 tasks going forward 1) turn from current accord into legally binding treaty 2) must launch Copenhagen green climate fund (immediate results to people in need and jumpstart clean energy growth in developing countries 3) current {2°/450ppm} mitigation fails to meet scientific bottom line (just a beginning, he says, and will take more than this to tackle climate change, but it is a step in the right direction)

Jonathan’s boots-on-the-ground perspective added to the Chief’s rosy report the following; that there were 3 major groups that coalesced at the Summit. Stay with me here...

Group 1: The poorest of the poor among the G77. This includes the island populations of the Maldives, Oceania and the South Pacific. Tuvalu becomes the heroic mouthpiece of this group, giving a compelling speech that rebukes the UN President “In biblical terms, trying to buy their grandchildren’s future with 30 pieces of silver. Well, Mr. President,” says Tuvalu, “our grandchildren’s future is not for sale.” They stand firm at a limit of 350 ppm CO2 and 1.5° atmospheric change.

Group 2: Group 2 was comprised of US, Europe, China, Brazil, India and many of the African countries. They created a parallel-process agreement at the 11th hour (to the consternation of many of the poor countries who felt sidelined [again]. They suggest 450ppm and 2° change as upper limit. They hope their accord will be made a legal treaty in Feb 2010, to be reviewed in 2015. (by which time it will be too late to turn back the clock to a 1.5°/ 350 change, as estimates have us significantly surpassing that at current emission rates by 2015)

Group 3: Group 3, my favorite, was comprised of countries who are sitting on stockpiles of the black stuff, big names are Canada (yes, sweet little Canada), Saudi Arabia, and Russia, who suggested a brilliant plan. Nothing. No limits, baby. Drill. sweetcheeks, Drill Drill and scrape those tarsands!!.

So Jonathan articulates the pickle. The Danish leadership, chair of the summit, was ousted by the end for their inept handling of the facilitative role. The Guardian published a leaked document, the ‘Danish text’, that states in 2050 the developed countries will have twice the emissions allowance as developing countries. This did not fly with the G77. Ed Miliband of the UK masterfully booted the Danish premier and put in a new chair at the 11th hour. Ed didn’t sleep from Wednesday through Saturday. Rock on, Ed. He’s one of the few hero’s of this story. Don't stop now, just getting revved up...

Let’s forget implications of climate change for a moment, as they are up for debate by 3 oil ranchers in texas and lots of bloggers who don’t hike up near former glacier sites very much. The politicians representing the world’s countries are petrified to speak what is clear to some of us. The current global market economy is based on fossil fuel. The US and Europe use a majority percentage of the worlds fossil fuel. If there is to be a just, equitable world moving forward then the US and Europe must return to a largely agrarian society and let go of their consumerist dominated culture. Hmmm. That message doesn’t earn many votes in the booming megalopolis. Scratch that, in ANY America except maybe Cow Island, North Haven Island and Unity, Maine. Guessing our politicians may not be the best representatives to administer the bitter pill of truth.

Currently the US has agreed to cut emissions by 17% in 2020. The UK has agreed to 34% by 2020. Both countries get pie eyed and ambitious with 80% emission cuts when we talk 2050. However our friend and financier China balks at a proposed 80% by 2050, claiming that it will cost them 89 trillion to do so. In 2009, the Guardian newspaper in London conducted a poll of 1756 climate experts who will attend Copenhagen and received responses form 261 of them. They published an article on April 14, 2009 that revealed almost nine out of 10 climate experts did {do} not believe current political efforts will keep warming below 2C (http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/apr/14/global-warming-target-2c)

Jonathan summarized his experience at Copenhagen with 5 story lines that seemed to be sub-plots running as undercurrents throughout summit. You're not drifting off are you? Pay attention. This is important. Again, I paraphrase his brilliant storytelling, he qualifies these with his sense that they are all true but only part of the larger story:
Sub-plot 1: Our political leaders will solve the Peak Oil/ Climate Change dilemma through global markets and the political process.
Refutation: The electorate just won’t support politicians who deliver this bitter message, it is disequilibrium at a rate the people won’t tolerate.

Sub-plot 2:We the people of Earth will fix it ourselves.
Refutation: Yep, but without regulation and global agreements, there will ALWAYS be someone with their hand in the cookie jar taking advantage of every one else’s hard work.

Sub-plot 3: Our current economic system has NO REVERSE GEAR!!! No one has a friggin clue how to slow down this beast.
Refutation: errrrrrrrr. hmmmmmm. damn.

Sub-plot 4: This journey is primarily a spiritual adventure. We are living in a multi-dimensional universe with many parallels, playing out a Mayan prognosticated cycle, and we will experience a major paradigm shift to a low-impact sustainable future on the other side of galactic alignment.
Refutation: errrrrrrrr. wyrd.

Sub-plot 5: Can’t solve this sucker. The die is cast. This is a tragedy of Shakesperean dimensions X 10³.
Refutation: errrrrrrrr. hmmmmmm. damn.

Jonathan described the current situation between the world’s leaders, the electrical charge between the G77 poor nations and the G8 as comparable to Elizabeth Kübler-Ross’ 5 Stages of Grief in her 1969 book, On Death and Dying. He suggests that we are globally at

‘Stage 2: ANGER. "Why me? It's not fair!"; "How can this happen to me?"; "Who is to blame?"
 Once in the second stage, the world recognizes that denial cannot continue. Because of anger, the disenfranchised are very difficult to care for due to misplaced feelings of rage and envy. Any individual that symbolizes life or energy is subject to projected resentment and jealousy.’
So what, again is causing global warming?
1) Deforestation
2) Energy Supply
3) Industry
4) Agriculture and Food Distribution
5) US and UK driving and transport
6) Waste Management

How do we help?
a. Drive less.
b. Fly less. {do as I say, not as I do}
c. Turn down thermostat
d. grow our own food.
e. buy and eat local.
f. don’t buy stupid disposable meaningless plastic crap.
g. support forest conservation.
h. build passive solar homes and insulate old ones.
i. love thy neighbor, don't discriminate, and share what you have.

Happy Solstice to all,

Aaron